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What happens in the Senate if Italy lives slips away

Julius Erwaku

Feb. 15, 2020

The majority that supports the Conte II government can contract to the Senate out of 164. Precisely: 98 senators of the 5 star Movement; 36 senators of the Democratic Party; 17 senators from Italy alive; 6 senators from the Autonomy group; 5 senators from Leu; 2 Maie senators. So, on paper, the Giallorossi reach and exceed the ‘safety threshold’ of the absolute majority, set at 161, for only 3 votes.
However, to these numbers, depending on the various votes and on different occasions, have also been added so far votes of some former M5s senators and some senators for life, numbers that have gradually ‘propped up’ the majority. The abacus situation would become critical in Palazzo Madama in the event of an escape from the majority of Italy alive, or of uneven vote of the Renzians from the rest of the Giallorossi, a hypothesis that could occur on the justice front.
How many “managers” would serve?
Without the 17 senators of Iv the majority – considered in its official perimeter – would in fact drop to 147. Oppositions can currently count on 139 votes (61 senators from Forza Italia; 60 senators from the League; 18 senators from Fratelli d’Italia). If the 17 Renzian senators were to vote on a measure together with the oppositions, the total number would rise to 156: therefore, always remaining in the list of hypotheses and always considering the official numbers of the various groups, the votes would be 9 compared to the majority. The Giallorossi would therefore need the external ‘help’ of at least 14 ‘managers’ to aim for an absolute majority of 161 votes.
It should be considered, however, that the current majority, as mentioned earlier, has so far been able to count on the votes of several former M5s senators (between 5 and 7), and on life-long senators. Which raises the bar of the Giallorossi – if possibly ‘orphans’ of Iv – to 154-158.
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