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Bitcoin looks to reach $159K – It can happen, but only if…
May 16, 2025
Bitcoin’s euphoric 15× rallies are long gone, but that doesn’t mean the top is in.
Bitcoin’s cycle tops have steadily declined from 15× to 2.65× the 2-Year Simple Moving Average.
Despite lower cycle multiples, BTC is showing signs of structural strength.
Over the past eight years, Bitcoin [BTC] has seen a massive shift in its price behavior as the market matures.
With each cycle, BTC’s peak has formed at a lower multiple of its 2-year simple moving average (2Y SMA), reflecting shrinking volatility and a more stable market structure.
From wild rallies to tempered surges
Looking at previous cycles, Bitcoin’s early bull runs were explosive, with tops occurring at 15x the 2Y SMA according to the Alphractal.
These explosive upswings signaled wild speculative growth, largely driven by a thin market and early adopters.
However, from 2017, the market started changing as Bitcoin reached the global market with widespread consciousness. The crypto’s growth, although staggering, was highly subdued.
During this time, the top was reached around 10x the 2Y SMA, indicating high volatility amid growing maturity.
In 2021, institutional money flooded in. Yet, the cycle’s peak dropped again, first hitting 5×, then reversing around 2.65× the 2Y SMA.
This marked a structural shift: Bitcoin was no longer just a trade—it was becoming a macro asset.
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