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Coronavirus: what a second wave might look like
Jun 4, 2020
As lockdown measures begin to relax in countries that are still battling the coronavirus, experts predict the possibilities of a second wave of infections. A second wave could rapidly pick up momentum as people increasingly begin to interact with those around them. A professor of mathematics and statistics has illustrated what a second wave could look like, taking into account certain scenarios and social responses.
As the new coronavirus was rapidly spreading in February and March 2020, many governments introduced stringent lockdown measures . Through a massive public effort, these countries have been successful at slowing the pandemic .
Combining various public health approaches, countries such as Slovenia and New Zealand have eradicated the virus within their borders. Other countries, including the UK, achieved significant progress in arresting the spread of the disease. Yet the lockdown has led to substantial economic and social loss in countries where stringent social distancing measures have been applied. Governments, as well as the public, are now keen to start removing the restrictions and return to normal life.
With the relaxation of the lockdown rules, warnings are being sounded about a possible resurgence of COVID-19 cases – a so-called second wave. The second wave of the Spanish flu pandemic in 1918-20 was particularly devastating, as was the second wave of the H1N1 epidemic in 2009-10 . So what can be done to avoid a second wave of COVID-19?
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