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Thursday Night Football odds, line: Titans vs. Jaguars picks, predictions from proven model on 79-53 run

Paulo João Lucas

Sept. 19, 2019

The Jacksonville Jaguars will try to win their first game of the season when they host the Tennessee Titans on Thursday Night Football at TIAA Bank Field. The Jaguars (0-2) opened the season with a 40-26 loss at home to Kansas City before a heartbreaking 13-12 decision at Houston on Sunday. In the latter game, Jacksonville coach Doug Marrone elected to go for a game-winning two-point conversion instead of kicking an extra point, but running back Leonard Fournette was stopped short of the goal line. Meanwhile, the Titans (1-1) lost on Sunday to Indianapolis, 19-17. Kickoff is set for 8:20 p.m. ET. Tennessee is a 1.5-point favorite in the latest Titans vs. Jaguars odds, while the over-under for total points scored is 38, down two from the opener after action on the under. Before you make any Jaguars vs. Titans picks of your own, you need to see the latest NFL predictions from the proven model at SportsLine.
This model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception four years ago. It has absolutely nailed its recent top-rated NFL picks, entering Week 3 of the 2019 NFL season on a strong 17-10 run that dates back to last season. It's also on a 79-53 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. Additionally, it nailed the Seahawks (+4) covering against the Steelers and the Patriots (-18) covering a massive spread against the Dolphins with room to spare in Week 2.
The model ranked inside the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch.com for the third straight year on straight-up NFL picks and beat over 96 percent of CBS Sports office pool players. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now the model has dialed in on Titans vs. Jaguars. We can tell you it is leaning under, and it has also generated an against the spread pick that hits in well over 50 percent of simulations. That one is only available at SportsLine.
The model has factored in that Titans running back Derrick Henry gashed the Jaguars the last time he saw them. The Tennessee running back rolled off 238 rushing yards, including a 99-yarder, and four touchdowns on just 17 carries in a 30-9 win. Since that performance, Henry has been the most productive back in the league, leading all players in rushing yards (750), rushing touchdowns (nine), scrimmage yards (858) and scrimmage touchdowns (10).
The model also has taken into account that Tennessee has owned the series between the teams recently. The Titans have swept the last four games against Jacksonville and are 6-1 over the last seven meetings. The average score in those seven contests is 27-20, which would easily cover Thursday's Titans vs. Jaguars line.
But just because Tennessee has been on a roll against Jacksonville does not guarantee it will cover the Titans vs. Jaguars spread on Thursday Night Football.
Wide receiver DJ Chark Jr. has started the season on fire for the Jaguars, with 11 receptions for 201 yards and two touchdowns. He was a second round draft pick by Jacksonville in 2018 and will be looking for his first reception against the Titans after being targeted just once last season. Chark leads the Jags in catches, targets, and yards, and is the only pass-catcher to find the end zone multiple times this season.
Also off to a strong start is wide receiver Chris Conley , who has 10 catches for 170 yards and one touchdown. For his five-year career, Conley has caught 114 passes for 1,408 yards and seven touchdowns after spending his first four years in Kansas City. Jaguars quarterback Gardner Minshew , filling in for the injured Nick Foles (collarbone), showcased his legs with 56 rushing yards last week against the Texans .
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